Trying to put this as succinctly as I can—I find Jiang’s theory quite interesting but I am struggling with the rare earth problem (China 49%, Brazil 23%, India 8% of known global reserves—China 92% of global processing/refining). Without rare earths we are dead in the water technologically.

As far as I understand from watching his lectures, his theory is that the USA is planning on Iran/GCC/Israel destroying the energy infrastructure of West Asia (Middle East) and to make a return to its regional sphere of influence, retreating into fortress America, into the Technate (USA, Canada, Mexico, Greenland, Cuba, Venezuela perhaps). They will retract the empire but focus the military on key economic choke points like the straight of Malaca. And with the energy output of West Asia crippled, China and the world will be forced to deal with America to fill the energy gap from the destruction of the GCC. Basically the USA will have the world by the balls for a few years.

I know Jiang theorizes that things will fall apart in 5-10 years as the world turns on the USA, that the energy/choke point hegemony trap will ultimately backfire and fail—but what about rare earths? Isn’t rare earths a sticking point for this “got the world by the balls” thinking? Would China not hold rare earths back to undermine the USA’s energy exploitation plans? China already used their rare earths monopoly to force negotiations on tariffs.

Anyways if anyone has any insight on this, or has heard Jiang address this anywhere I’d appreciate the perspective. Thanks.

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