(CREDIT TO GrumpierBTDay ON X)

Been digging into $UMAC, trying to understand why the analyst numbers seem so off compared to CEO Allan's statements and my own guesstimates.

The consensus FY27 revenue is about $50M.

A recent Litchfield Hills report targets $50M top line for FY '27.

Needham has a FY26 estimate of $40M (raised from $25M after Q1) and a "clear path to a $100M run-rate by FY27", which implies Q4 27 at $25 M. Scale that back through the year for a FY target of about $55M to $65M

Roth Capital and Jones Trading give a $25 and $20 PT respectively, but I can't find explicit top line projections. Working backwards I figure they're modeling about $50M in FY27.

CEO Allan Evans, on the other hand, has been pretty consistent across multiple channels (AlphaWolf, the Q1 call, and the White Diamond piece). The targets he keeps repeating:

- 1,000+ employees

- 100-120K motors a month

- 140K sqft of factory footprint

- $250M top line FY27 from the Drone Dominance Program alone

This is a $200M discrepancy on the top line between Allan's commentary and analyst targets. Sooooo.... what gives? Either Allan, or the analysts, are off by an order of magnitude. This is the kind of gap worth digging into.

I want to zoom in on the headcount, both because it's something Allan has articulated as an indicator, and because it stood out to me in the CC+Shareholder letter.

To give a quick timeline, as reported in the last 10K:

- Mar 31, 2025: 18 employees

- Dec 31, 2025: 81 employees, $4.9M revenue

- Mar 6, 2026: 141 employees, $8.1M revenue

Then on the Q1 shareholder letter and CC we were informed they're at 200 employees, and still hiring.

So, +60 employees in roughly six weeks between the 10k and Q1. 10 employees per week. With about 85 weeks between May 14th the end of '27, 10/week would put us right at the 1000 employees Allan has targeted.

Interesting.

In Q1 they did $230k/employee annualized ($8.1M / 141 * 4), fueled by a jump in B2B revenue from basically 0 to $7.3 million. Don't forget this number includes new hires, trainees, those not yet truly productive. Compare this to Q4 where they did $240k/employee, annualized, at 81 employees.

Headcount increased 75% while rev/employee basically stayed flat. This suggests to me that UMAC is effectively hiring into demand.

What's more, the ratio between 'productive' and 'trainee' only improves from here. I expect we'll see a bit of improvement and then leveling out.

Side note: they're investing in more factory automation equipment, which should eventually boost rev/employee. I don't think $300k/ is out of the question down the road. Not using that number though.

Putting that all together, if we get to 1000 employees by end of '27 and pencil in $250k/employee, we get $250M top line. Right in line with what Allan has targeted.

Interesting.

So the pace of hiring is on track, and Allan's top line is a reasonable target if both hiring keeps pace and Allan can put 1000 people to work at a $250k annualized rate.

Are there …

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