Costco (COST): The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly from COST's Earnings Call
- May 28, 2026
The Good 🎉 Strong Financial Results:
Net income up 15% YoY to $2.19B ($4.93/share).
Net sales up 11.6% YoY to $69.2B.
Comparable sales up 9.8% (6.6% ex-gas and FX), with digitally enabled comp sales up 21.5%.
Membership Health:
Paid executive memberships up 9.6% YoY; total paid members up 4.1%.
Membership fee income grew 10.7% YoY.
US/Canada renewal rate stable at 92.2%; worldwide at 89.7%.
Traffic & Basket Growth:
Traffic up 2.4% globally; average transaction up 7.3% (4.2% ex-gas/FX).
Gas Business Boom:
Record-breaking gas volumes and positive comps in the high 20s, driving increased member loyalty.
E-Commerce & Digital Progress:
37% increase in site/app traffic.
Personalized product recommendations led to 3x conversion rates.
Same-day delivery growing rapidly; satisfaction rating 4.8/5.
Innovation & New Offerings:
New Kirkland Signature items (energy drinks, ultra filtered milk, etc.).
Strong sales in self-care, wellness, and higher-value items (saunas, massage chairs up ~50%).
AI and Retail Media:
Early but strong triple-digit growth in AI-driven site traffic.
Launch of personalized retail media and partnerships with Google/YouTube.
Strategic Expansion:
4 net new warehouses opened this quarter; 928 worldwide.
Focus on remodeling/expanding high-volume warehouses and parking.
Cost Discipline & Productivity:
SG&A rate improved YoY; technology investments yielding better checkout speed and operating efficiencies.
The Bad 😬 Slowing Membership Growth:
Paid member growth at 4.1%, the lowest in some time (though explained as “normalizing” after COVID/new market booms).
Gross Margin Pressure:
Reported gross margin down 21 bps YoY (mainly due to mix shift and lower margins in fresh/food as prices were reduced).
Core-on-core margins were down 9 bps, largely from strategic price investments in key categories.
Higher Operating Costs:
Transportation costs (from higher gas prices) and healthcare costs were headwinds.
Some operations and central SG&A deleverage due to healthcare and legal settlements.
Inventory & Supply Chain Risks:
Anticipation of inflation in nonfood categories due to higher resin costs.
Monitoring for potential longer-term impact from Middle East shipping disruptions (though current exposure is low).
Limited New Market Expansion:
No recent major international warehouse openings, impacting outsized membership growth seen in past years.
The Ugly 🚩 Tariff and Legal Risks:
Ongoing process to reclaim Section 301 tariffs; refund process could be prolonged and is subject to legal action regarding how refunds are returned to members.
Capacity Constraints:
Some stores at/near capacity; physical space (parking, warehouse size) may limit ability to drive further traffic without continued investment/expansion.
Competitive Pressure:
Walmart and Amazon aggressively improving delivery speeds and capabilities, raising the bar for Costco’s e-commerce and fulfillment.
Ongoing need to evaluate whether to build out in-house delivery capabilitie…
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