After 4 years of war the Armed Forces of Ukraine finally achieved to halt the constant, but ever-slowing Russian offensive. If we can even call the endless meat wave attacks that Russia is conducting in the past few years an “offensive”.

Escalation, or de-escalation?

The previously surfacing rumours about a new Russian mobilisation are becoming more credible every month. If Ukraine continues to inflict higher casualties than what Russia can recruit month after month, Putin will be forced to choose between two options. He either has to call for another wave of mobilisation, or offer a ceasefire on terms that are more favourable to Ukraine.

It seems like many in the Russian elite are now trying to persuade him to opt for the latter. They are quietly building the ground for that possibility. At this point, some media are framing narratives that the “Special Military Operation” has already achieved its goal, and any further military action would only lead to a Pyrrhic victory.

At the end of the day, this will be only Putin’s decision. Forces inside Russia may try to push him in one direction or another, but so far, they have proven unsuccessful every time when it came to the war. He is much too obsessed with the total control of Ukraine, and as of now he still believes he can win, and that it’s only a matter of time until the frontline starts collapsing.

However, so far, he also did everything in his power to avoid another mobilisation. Right now is probably not the optimal time for him to reconsider it, with the Russian parliamentary elections approaching in September. Until then, the most likely outcome is that he’ll continue the covert mobilisation with the usual tricks. These include things like forcing people to sign up for the war in exchange for getting rid of mock charges or pressuring students and debtors, and the offer of more and more money.

Speaking of money, he got some extra coming his way with Israeli-US war on Iran and the subsequent blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, increasing energy prices, and the US sanctions relief. That, however, seems to be getting close to an end along with higher oil prices, and financing might become an increasingly bigger concern.

Whether a new mobilisation wave could even solve Russia’s problems is getting increasingly doubtful. Many western studies and think tanks arrive at a similar conclusion with Russian milbloggers agreeing with their assessment. Decorated veteran , blogger, ex-FSB agent and international terrorist Igor Girkin who is fittingly serving a jail sentence for speaking the truth about the reality on the battlefield, has been calling for a large-scale mobilisation since year one of the invasion.

With hindsight of the current situation in 2026, it seems like he was correct, and Russia would likely be in a much better position right now. But as of lately his - and other Russian milbloggers’s - expectation of a potential Russian victory is getting ever more gloomy. He claims that at this point …

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